Everton host Chelsea at Goodison Park with both teams looking to end a confusing run of form. Everton have picked up two wins but also three draws in their last five games. Chelsea have won twice, lost twice, and drawn once away from home in their last five. This Everton vs Chelsea prediction backs a game that produces a winner, not a draw, based on the numbers below.

History Rarely Lets This Fixture Settle for a Draw

Look at the last five meetings between these two clubs. Chelsea have won three of them, Everton have won one, and only one game ended level. Everton beat Chelsea 3-0 on 21 March 2026, a result that broke Chelsea’s usual control of this fixture. Before that, Chelsea won 2-0 in December 2025, 1-0 in April 2025, and 6-0 back in April 2024. The only draw in that stretch was a 0-0 game in December 2024. One draw in five tells you plenty about how this fixture usually plays out.

Chelsea’s Away Form Keeps Producing Goals

Chelsea score 2.8 goals a game away from home this season, but they also concede 2.2. Every away game Chelsea have played has gone over 2.5 goals, a perfect 100% rate. Their BTTS rate on the road sits at 80% too. Numbers like these rarely produce a quiet 0-0. When Chelsea travel, goals tend to follow, and goals usually decide a winner.

Everton’s Home Defense Gives Them a Real Chance

Everton concede just 0.8 goals a game at Goodison Park, by far their best number this season. Their home over 2.5 rate sits at 40%, and their BTTS rate is the same. That means Everton can keep things tight when they play at home. Add in two wins from their last five games, and Everton look capable of taking something from this one. With Chelsea shipping 2.2 goals a game away from home, Everton have a real route to a win, not just a draw.

Put it together and a draw looks like the least likely outcome here. History leans one way, Chelsea’s away games are full of goals, and Everton’s home defense keeps them competitive. That’s why the double chance on Chelsea or Everton, at odds of 1.3, makes sense for this Everton vs Chelsea prediction. Check our VIP predictions page for more tips like this one before kickoff.

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Sources: Premier League official site for fixtures and standings, and our VIP tips for more daily picks.