Arsenal have won three of the last five games against Everton, and nothing in the recent data suggests that trend is about to stop. This Arsenal vs Everton prediction for the Premier League clash backs the home side to win again, with Arsenal’s attack and Everton’s struggles away from home pointing the same way.

Arsenal Keep Winning, Everton Keep Stumbling

Arsenal’s last five games read LWWWD. One loss, one draw, three wins. That is the form of a team that rarely slips twice in a row.

Everton’s form is DWWDL. Two wins in there, but also two draws and a loss. It is a shakier run, and it shows Everton can go flat for long spells.

Put those two runs side by side. Arsenal look steady. Everton look inconsistent, especially when the form dips late, as their last game shows.

The Numbers Behind This Arsenal vs Everton Prediction

Arsenal score 1.6 goals a game and concede 1.2. That is a team that scores more than it lets in, home advantage included.

Everton score just 0.8 goals a game and concede 0.8. That is a side that neither scores much nor leaks much. It points to a low-scoring game from Everton’s side of the pitch, but not necessarily a safe one for them.

Arsenal also hit over 2.5 goals in 80% of their games. Everton do that in just 20% of theirs. That gap is huge, and it tells you who controls the tempo of this match.

  • Arsenal score 1.6 goals per game at home
  • Everton score only 0.8 goals per game away
  • Arsenal have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings
  • Arsenal’s over 2.5 rate sits at 80%, Everton’s at just 20%

BTTS numbers tell a similar story. Arsenal’s BTTS rate is 40%, Everton’s is 20%. Goals are more likely to come from one side of the pitch than both.

Why the History Favours Arsenal Again

Look back at the five meetings in our data. Arsenal won three, Everton won none, and there were two draws. The most recent game ended 2-0 to Arsenal, with a clean sheet to go with it. Before that, Arsenal won 1-0 away at Everton, another clean sheet.

Go back further and you see a 1-1 draw, then a 0-0, then a 2-1 Arsenal win. Out of five matches, four finished under 2.5 goals. Only one went over. That lines up neatly with Arsenal’s high scoring rate at home and Everton’s low scoring rate on the road, since these specific meetings haven’t been goal-fests even with Arsenal scoring more overall.

The pick here is Arsenal to win the match outright, priced at 1.41. That price reflects a side with better recent form, a much higher scoring rate, and a head-to-head record that leans heavily their way. Everton have shown they can defend tight in these meetings, with two clean sheets kept by Arsenal in the last two games alone, but defending tight has not been enough to get them points.

For fans who want a second view or extra markets around this fixture, our VIP predictions page breaks down more angles beyond the straight match winner.

Everton’s away form, their low goal output, and Arsenal’s recent scoring runs all point the same way. This Arsenal vs Everton prediction favours the home side to close out another routine win.

Back Arsenal to win at 1.41, and check our VIP predictions for more angles on this one.

Sources: Premier League official site for fixtures and standings, and our VIP tips for more daily picks.