Why has every single meeting between these two clubs ended with a winner? That question sits at the heart of this Alavés vs Málaga prediction in Primera Division. Five head-to-head games in our data, five results with a team walking away with all three points. Not one finished level. That pattern, combined with two defenses that keep leaking goals, shapes the pick for this one.
Alavés’s Perfect Record for Producing a Winner
Look at the head-to-head list and one thing jumps out. In the last five meetings, Alavés won four and Málaga won one. Zero draws. The most recent game in 2023 ended Alaves 2-1 Malaga, both teams scoring in a game with 3 goals. Before that, Malaga beat Alaves 1-0 in 2022, keeping a clean sheet. Go back further and you find Malaga 0-3 Alaves in 2018, Alaves 1-0 Malaga in 2017, and Malaga 1-2 Alaves in March 2017. Five games, five winners. That history backs a bet that rules out the draw completely.
Current form adds weight to that idea, even if it looks ugly on paper. Alavés have won none of their last five league games, with four losses and a draw. Málaga have fared no better, picking up two draws and three losses in the same stretch. Neither side looks sharp right now. But poor form on both sides often means mistakes, and mistakes tend to produce goals and winners rather than tight, goalless draws.
Weak Defenses Point to a Winner, Not a Stalemate
The numbers behind each team support that theory. Alavés score just 0.6 goals a game at home and concede 1.4. Málaga manage 1 goal a game away from home but concede a hefty 2.2. Neither team defends well, and Málaga’s away record in particular is leaky. When a team concedes over two goals a game on the road, a 0-0 or 1-1 finish becomes less likely.
Both teams have scored in 80% of Málaga’s away games this season, and in 60% of Alavés’s home games. These are not numbers that suggest a quiet, scoreless draw. They suggest goals will come, and when goals come, one side usually ends up ahead. That is exactly what has happened in every one of the last five meetings between these clubs.
Put it all together and the double chance on Alavés or Málaga at 1.32 looks like a sound way to back this trend. It only fails if the match ends level, and recent history between these two gives little reason to expect that. Fans wanting a deeper breakdown of the numbers behind this Alavés vs Málaga prediction can find more detailed stats in our VIP predictions section.
Back the double chance here and lean on a head-to-head record that has never produced a draw.
Sources: Primera Division official site for fixtures and standings, and our VIP tips for more daily picks.